Sunday, May 26, 2013   




Recipe for five more years of furor

Scott Cheng

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

It's almost noon on Monday. Results of the so- called "super seats" functional constituency election have yet to be announced, but those of the rest of the other functional constituencies, save for three more plus five geographical constituencies, have.

Therefore, we should still be able to get a glimpse of the factors influencing the 2012 Legislative Council election and its likely impacts on the political landscape.

I believe that, as expected, turnout at the election was high, thanks to the administration's insensitivity towards the public furor over and inability to unravel - or reluctance to admit - the underlying psychological fear of national education.

Talking about fear, I always believe that for Hong Kong and China to move forward together, both Hong Kong people and the central government must together undergo a psychotherapeutic healing process of openly and mutually revealing and encountering the fear and suspicion that both sides have been harboring.

And Leung Chun-ying, who has the confidence of the central government, can take the lead in this process. Let's see if this year's election provides a catalyst for the process.

One must remember the accumulative turnout rate was still below those of most Western democratic countries.

Therefore, it appears the national education row failed to drive the public to polling stations to vote against its supporters.

I cannot help toying with the idea that the controversy is a non-issue to some people, such as lower income groups who are more concerned with making ends meet.

Low-income earners are the natural support base for CY's administration, and this explains the "alliance" formed with Ho Hei-wah, executive director of the grassroots association Society for Community Organization.

In the geographical constituencies, the Democratic Party turned out to be a miserable loser. For example, in New Territories West, all the candidates fielded by the party lost. Lee Wing- tat failed to retain his seat. This perhaps may be interpreted as punishment for the party's support of the constitutional reform package introduced in 2010. Further evidence of this is the success in New Territories East of Gary Fan Kwok-wai of the Neo Democrats.

Another significant observation is that radical forces like People Power won more seats than last time. Radical forces will continue to stay and gain support if the government continues to ignore democratic aspirations.

On the other hand, the pro-Beijing DAB once again did a commendable job in mass mobilization, especially vote-allocation efforts for its candidates, fundamental for any party in a proportional representation system. This is something pan-democrats should learn from.

Overall, pan-democrats secured 18 seats against 17 obtained by pro-establishment candidates in the geographical constituencies.

If pan-democrats also win more of the functional constituencies, they may be a formidable force in blocking government bills or requests for funding. If they are, I can see continual furor in Legco over the next five years.

Scott Cheng is a strategic PR consultant


© 2013 The Standard, The Standard Newspapers Publishing Ltd.
Contact Us | About Us | Newsfeeds | Subscriptions | Print Ad. | Online Ad. | Street Pts

 


Home | Top News | Local | Business | China | ViewPoint | CityTalk | World | Sports | People | Central Station | Spree | Features

The Standard

Trademark and Copyright Notice: Copyright 2013, The Standard Newspaper Publishing Ltd., and its related entities. All rights reserved.  Use in whole or part of this site's content is prohibited.   Use of this Web site assumes acceptance of the
Terms of Use, Privacy Statement and Copyright Policy.  Please also read our Ethics Statement.